The Anti-Assad forces recently launched a battle for Damascus or at least the suburbs. Assad's troops have been unable to win this fight. Thus far they have been unable to blunt this thrust, unable to dislodge the rebels from the areas they have won. The rebels appear to firmly control the areas they occupy. The rebels have even countered Assad's only advantage, air power with the acquisition of surplus Soviet era surface to air missiles.
Enter last week, Assad's army was unable to make any headway against the rebel forces. It appears someone in the regime authorized the use of weapons of mass destruction. Someone launched a massive chemical weapon attack into one of the rebel held areas outside of Damascus. The casualties both civilian and fighter were substantial. The overall military impact of this attack is unclear, because the WMD attack was not followed up with a sustained ground attack.
Allow me to be clear, this is not the first alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army. The record on this includes a long list of allegations. To this date, it is not clear if any of these allegations have been proven. This most recent allegation is being vigorously investigated.
If it proves true, which given all the indication so far it will be, then it appears that the Syrian civil war has entered a new phase. The tone and tenor of the war has shifted to a desperate one for Assad's regime. Only a tyrant unable to put down this rebellion by conventional means would open Pandora's box in such a fashion. Only a small minded thug would cheat like this. Only a person bent on staying in power at all costs even if staying in power solely through fear was the only avenue would do this.
Many would see this event as bad news. I am not one of those people. For me, this means that the end game for this civil war is at hand. This belief is not on the basis that a 'red line' has been crossed and the west is likely to more actively engage this situation. It is on the bases that our strategy of support and engagement to date is working. The Syrian army cannot win this fight through conventional force of arms. Their opponents are now at least their equal. The army must now use tactics that the entire world has turned their back on and find thoroughly repugnant.
Almost every nation in the world has condemned this most recent act of barbarism. The court of public opinion has rendered its verdict on the Assad regime. It has been weighed on the scales of justice and found wanting. This is good news for the Syrian people.
That doesn't mean this war will end tomorrow. The people of the western democracies are war weary. They don't want to put soldiers on the ground to affect the outcome of this civil war. The recent vote in the UK House of Commons is testament to this. The polling that appeared in Le Monde and the editorials that accompanied it confirmed this.
Rightly or wrongly, this opinion, this is actually another piece of good news. The Syrian rebels will have the opportunity to win this fight for themselves. History will record that a ragged band of rebels, few in number, and poorly organized faced off against one of the best equipped and best organized land armies of the middle east and beat them. The will record an impressive triumph for themselves.
The path of engagement for the US is pretty clear. We should remove the WMD stockpiles and the weapons systems that deliver them from the field. Whether that is solely with a series of surgical cruise missile strikes or a sustained bombing campaign is a dealer's choice option. It we do this and can get agreement on a 'no fly zone' over Syria, while ramping up weapons shipments to the rebels, the Assad regime will crumble in a matter of months.
There are risks to be sure. Russian and Iran have an interest in keeping Assad in power. This will require a lot of deft skill in many realms and spheres of influence. We need to make it clear to all involved that a signatory to the chemical weapons ban doesn't get to turn around use these weapons. Russia will have to be persuaded to forgo its arms sales to Syria. The task is a hard one, but our diplomatic corps needs to put on its big boy pants and get to work earning its paychecks.
The issue with Iran is a much thornier one. Tehran has spent billions in hard currency propping up Damascus in the last two years. Their preference for the Assad regime is clear. That doesn't mean that their opinion cannot be changed. It can. That doesn't mean we should let them off the hook to do so. Rather it means we should couple their continued support for Damascus with further action from the security council for more sanctions, tighter sanctions, and a possible full ban on all oil exports from Iran. It is definitely possible that this stick and bigger stick approach will work.
To my fellow conservative allies allow me to say this, get out of the way. Allow the executive branch to do what's necessary here. These events are part of a process that is positively reshaping a region that was once known for tyrants and dictators. Congress should advise the executive, but it should stop there. The actions that need to be taken here belong solely to the executive branch. Let them do what it required here. The next generation will thank us.
Allow me to explain what I mean. For most of my life we accepted the villain we knew over the messy transition to freedom for millions of people across the globe. There were even those that were my teachers in my youth that taught the some people were not capable of freedom. There are even some I know that still espouse this view. I have always found this perspective to be the height of turgid intellectual effluence and twaddle.
This view does not square with JFK's inaugural address, 'pay any price, bear any burden' philosophy. It does not find support with Truman's support for emerging democracies the world over. And it does not find congruence with the values we claim to cling to.
We should support the efforts of the teeming masses to breathe freely everywhere. We should be for human rights everywhere. We should without question or hesitation aid any in their fight against tyranny. In doing so we pay forward the assistance we were provided in our own struggle against tyranny. In doing so the argument of our nation as 'the great Satan' becomes a tired and invalid proposition. If new democracies owe a significant portion of their existence to our support material and otherwise, it makes finding foot soldiers for terror to be an infinitely harder task.
If the Arab Spring continues, more nations will cease to be run by tin horn dictators and dictatorial despots. Imagine a middle east ruled completely by democratic governments with free and fair elections. Imagine a middle east in which the governments exist at the will of their populations, and are composed of those chosen by the will of the electorate. Imagine a middle east where freedom of speech and freedom of assemble were the norm, not the exception.
If the Assad regime is driven from power to either a cell in the Hague or a long overdue appointment with a firing squad, that will go a long way to cementing this as a permanent transition, and not a spring time fluke. If Syria transitions, the middle east becomes a bit safer. The key players in the terror trade will be without a primary state sponsor. Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and others will find material support harder to come by. Lebanon might actually stand a real chance at stability and peace. The peace process in Israel might actually get somewhere for a change.
Yes Iran remains a problem even if Syria falls. But that is tomorrow's problem. The progress will be undeniable. Tunisia, Iraq, Egypt, and Syria solidly no longer run by fear and tyranny. And yes all are works in progress, but imagine where this started out two years ago. Imagine where this could be two years from now. Iran cannot hold back a tide this powerful for long in the face of this evidence.
This positive vision of a peaceful middle east is compelling. It is worth committing ourselves to. The risks are huge, but the cost for not acting is worse. There is a window in which this world known mostly for terror, torment, and tyranny can be transliterated into something new. It can set aside the past and freedom can ring from Tunis to Tehran.
POSTSCRIPT: There are those that believe a darker agenda is at work here. They fret that the Arab spring is the work of those seeking a 'greater caliphate'. They are urging us not to support those seeking freedom for those in the middle east. The problem with this view is that the primary players in this agenda all owe allegiance to Tehran. And Tehran is currently seeking to keep Syria firmly in Assad's hands. This view is disingenuously near sighted and myopic. Not support people seeking freedom, because of one small group's future plans should not be how foreign policy is conducted now of ever. Assisting the urge of residents around the world to be free should be what our nation is all about.